Amerika

Trump! Egy izgalmas választási éjszaka

Rendkívül izgalmasan alakult az amerikai választások éjszakája november 9-én. Hajnali kettőkor keltem, hogy élőben nézzem az eseményeket, erre az inspirált, hogy még magyar idő szerint este a CNN közvéleménykutatást készített a választásról. A felmérésből az derült ki, hogy a legtöbb ember (ha jól emlékszem, 38 %), aki elment választani, azért ment, mert változást akar. Ez Trumpnak jó, talán mégis meglepetés lesz?

Magyar idő szerint hajnali kettő, az amerikai keleti parton este nyolc. Az első eredmények már jönnek. Hillary Clinton pár elektori szavazattal vezet (akkor éppen 68-66 volt az állás a javára). De: már látszik, hogy Clintonné a vártnál sokkal gyengébben szerepelt a demokrata törzsállamoknak számító északkeleten (Maine, New Yersey stb.);  és az is látszik, hogy az ún. battleground államokban (Észak-Karolina, Ohio, Florida stb.) Trump vezet. Sőt, váratlanul Trump vezet olyan északi államokban is, mint Michigan, Wisconsin. A Clinton szekerét toló CNN műsorvezetőinek gombócot látok a torkában.

Bekapcsolom az internetet. Az index.hu választási műsora nem objektív tájékoztatás, hanem Clinton-propaganda, Trumpot büdösbunkózzák. Florida fordulópont, a hangnem is változik. Trump most már esélyesebb, percről percre csökkennek Mrs. Clinton esélyei. Végül a kegyelemdöfést Pennsylvania adja be, a Commonwealthben nagy meglepetésre Trump fordítani tudott (ebben az államban utoljára 1988-ban tudott győzni republikánus elnökjelölt).

Trump egy, az amerikai társadalomban végbemenő tektonikus mozgás eredményeképpen tudott felszínre kerülni és győzni (akárcsak a 2008-ban a change jelszavával kampányoló Barack Obama). Ez a változás persze csak azoknak meglepő, akik nem ismerik az amerikai társadalmat. Paul Krugman vagy már tíz éve írja, hogy az amerikai társadalomban, különösen a fiatalok között, erőteljes balratolódás észlelhető – ez a mozgás lendítette előre a bevallottan szocialista Bernie Sanderst, aki akár elnökjelölt is lehetett volna, ha a Demokrata Párt elitje meg nem fúrja. Trump pedig csodálatos módon szinte a teljes politikai establishmenttel szemben tudott sikert aratni, úgy, hogy szinte mindenki leírta (még a republikánusok jelentős része is magára hagyta). Az amerikai politikában amúgy nagy hagyományokkal rendelkező establishment-ellenesség immáron kritikus tömeggé olvadt össze. Trump  vagy az élére áll a mélyben zajló, az ő legitimitását és hatalmát biztosító változásoknak, jó értelemben vett populista lesz – és akkor nagy elnök válhat belőle. De választhatja a könnyebbik utat is, Obamához hasonlóan belesimul a „készbe”, nem tesz semmi korszakalkotót (vagy külső konfliktusokba csatornázza a belső gondokat) – és akkor jó esetben középszerű elnökként vonulhat be a történelembe. A történelembe, mely Trump nélkül is halad a maga útján, és úgyis elhozza a változást.

(https://nepibaloldal.blog.hu/2016/11/18/trump_egy_valasztasi_ejszaka)

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